Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been implicated as the primary etiologic agent of cervical cancer. Potential vaccines against high-risk HPV types are in clinical trials. We evaluated vaccination programs with a vaccine against HPV-16 and HPV-18. We developed disease transmission models that estimated HPV prevalence and infection rates for the population overall' by age group' by level of sexual activity within each age group' and by sex. Data were based on clinical trials and published and unpublished sources.

　　An HPV-16/18 vaccine for 12-year-old girls would reduce cohort cervical cancer cases by 61.8%' with a cost-effectiveness ratio of 14'583 dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Including male participants in a vaccine rollout would further reduce cervical cancer cases by 2.2% at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 442'039 dollars/QALY compared to female-only vaccination. Vaccination against HPV-16 and HPV-18 can be cost-effective' although including male participants in a vaccination program is generally not cost-effective' compared to female-only vaccination.